Lincoln Chafee - Independent Candidate for Rhode Island Governor

Rhode Island Governor: Chafee (I) Holds Slight Lead

July 23, 2010

Rasmussen Reports

Independent candidate Lincoln Chafee holds a slight lead over Democratic State Treasurer Frank Caprio in Rhode Island's race for governor.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Rhode Island finds Chafee with 37% to Caprio's 30% if John Robitaille is their GOP opponent. Robitaille, a former top aide to current Governor Don Carcieri, gets 23% of the vote. Two percent (2%) would vote for "some other candidate" and eight percent (8%) are undecided.

If former State Representative Victor Moffitt is the Republican gubernatorial candidate, Chaffee earns 36% support to Caprio's 33%.  Moffitt nets 18% of the vote. In that match-up, 4% prefer another option and 9% are undecided.

Generally speaking, these numbers are little changed from late May and suggest a very competitive election may be in store.

Last week, Rhode Island Attorney General Patrick Lynch dropped out of the race for the Democratic nomination. He expressed concern about a divisive primary that he said "would most likely result in the wrong leadership at a pivotal moment in time for Rhode Islanders."

Lynch was not performing as well as Caprio in Rasmussen Reports polling and was also trailing in fundraising.

Both parties will pick their nominees in September 14 primaries.

Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Rhode Island was conducted on July 21, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Nine percent (9%) of Rhode Island voters rate the economy as good or excellent while 50% say it's in poor shape. Thirty-one percent (31%) say it's getting better while 40% say the opposite.  Sixty-four percent (64%) say the country is in a recession.

Rhode Island voters are fairly evenly divided on the new health care law. Forty-nine percent (49%) favor its repeal while 45% don't. That's far less support for repeal than is found nationwide.

Fifty-three percent (53%) would like an immigration law for their state like the one in Arizona. By a 50% to 41% margin, Rhode Island voters oppose the Justice Department lawsuit against Arizona. Nationally, opposition to the lawsuit is higher.

Just 48% support offshore drilling and 40% support deep water drilling. Both figures are below the national average.

Chafee was appointed to the Senate in 1999 following the death of his father, Senator John Chafee. He was elected to a full Senate term in 2000 but lost his bid for reelection in 2006. Chafee, who often clashed with the Senate GOP leadership because of his liberal political views, became an independent in 2007.

Chaffee is viewed Very Favorably by 28% of Rhode Island voters and Very Unfavorably by 24%.

Twenty-two percent (22%) have a Very Favorable opinion of Caprio, while eight percent (8%) regard him Very Unfavorably.

For Lynch, Very Favorables are 14% and Very Unfavorables 28%.

Robitaille is seen Very Favorably by seven percent (7%), Very Unfavorably by eleven percent (11%).

Six percent (6%) hold a Very Favorable view of Moffitt, and eleven percent (11%) see him Very Unfavorably.

At this stage of the campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the very favorable and very unfavorable figures more significant than the overall favorability totals.

Carcieri, a Republican, is term-limited and cannot seek reelection as governor. Forty-nine percent (49%) approve of how he is performing, down four points from the previous survey; 48% disapprove.

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