Lincoln Chafee - Independent Candidate for Rhode Island Governor

Rhode Island Governor: Chafee Still Leads

March 29, 2010

Election 2010: Rhode Island Governor
Rasmussen Reports

Former Senator Lincoln Chafee remains the leader in the race to be Rhode Island's next governor, with State Treasurer Frank Caprio the strongest Democrat in the contest for now.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in Rhode Island shows Chafee, who is running as an independent, earning 39% support to Caprio's 28%. Likely Republican nominee John Robitaille picks up 22% of the vote, with 11% more undecided.

Chafee pulls 37% of the vote if state Attorney General Patrick Lynch is the Democrat in the race. Robitaille is in second with 26% support, and Lynch runs third with 22%. Fifteen percent (15%) are undecided.
Robitaille, a former aide to current Republican Governor Don Carcieri, runs slightly stronger this month, but the overall numbers have changed very little from the first Rasmussen Reports survey of the race in late February.

Chafee was appointed to the Senate in 1999 following the death of his father, Senator John Chafee. He was elected to a full Senate term in 2000 but lost his bid for reelection in 2006. Chafee, who often clashed with the Senate GOP leadership because of his liberal political views, became an independent in 2007.

This helps to explain why he picks up very few of the state's GOP voters now but runs stronger among Democrats than either of the candidates hoping to be the Democratic gubernatorial nominee. The ex-senator also leads all his competitors among voters not affiliated with either of the major parties.

Carcieri is term-limited and cannot seek reelection. Both parties pick their nominees in September 14 primaries.

Rhode Island voters like the national health care plan passed by Congress more than voters do nationally. Fifty-seven percent (57%) of voters in the state favor it, while 41% are opposed. This includes 34% who Strongly Favor the plan and 31% who Strongly Oppose it.

No matter which Democrat is in the race, Chafee carries more than half of voters who Strongly Favor the health care plan. Robitaille earns the support of 60% or more of those who Strongly Oppose the plan.

Twenty-five percent (25%) of Rhode Island voters have a very favorable opinion of Chafee, while 21% regard him very unfavorably.

Robitaille is viewed very favorably by six percent (6%) and very unfavorably by seven percent (7%). He is the least-known of the candidates, with 35% who have no opinion at all of him.

For Caprio, very favorables are 16% and very unfavorables six percent (6%). Fifteen percent (15%) view Lynch very favorably, and 25% see him very unfavorably.

At this early stage of the campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the very favorable and very unfavorable figures more significant than the overall favorability totals.

Fifty-five percent (55%) of Rhode Island voters favor the requirement in the new health care law that every American must buy or obtain health insurance. Forty-two percent (42%) oppose that requirement. These findings include 35% who Strongly Favor it, and 32% who are Strongly Opposed.

Thirty-four percent (34%) think Rhode Island should join the states that are suing the federal government to block the health care plan because they believe that requirement is unconstitutional. Fifty percent (50%) oppose that kind of lawsuit.

Fifty-one percent (51%) believe the overall health care plan is good for the country. Thirty-six percent (36%) say it's bad for the country, but just three percent (3%) say it will have no impact.

Forty-four percent (44%) favor repeal of the plan, including 31% who Strongly Favor it. Fifty percent (50%) oppose repeal, with 40% who Strongly Oppose it.

That's why 50% say they'd vote for a candidate who opposes repeal, while 42% prefer one who wants to roll back the plan.

The national anti-incumbency mood is not quite so strong in Rhode Island either. Currently, 51% of voters in the state think it would be better for the country if most incumbents in Congress were defeated this November. Twenty-six percent (26%) say it would be better if most incumbents were reelected.

However, 39% say their local representative in Congress deserves to be reelected. Forty-one percent (41%) disagree.

Forty-four percent (44%) of Rhode Island voters predict that the economy will be stronger a year from now, but 31% think it will be weaker. Seventeen percent (17%) expect no change.

Barack Obama took 63% of the vote in Rhode Island in the 2008 election. Sixty-one percent (61%) of the state's voters currently approve of the job he is doing as president, with 42% who Strongly Approve. Thirty-nine percent (39%) disapprove of his performance, including 30% who Strongly Disapprove. Obama earns a much higher job approval rating in Rhode Island than he has nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Forty-three percent (43%) approve of how Carcieri is doing as governor, but 55% disapprove, unchanged from the previous survey. This includes 19% who Strongly Approve of his job performance and 35% who Strongly Disapprove.
Rasmussen Reports also has released recent polls on the 2010 governor's races in Arizona, Wisconsin, Texas, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vermont and Hawaii.

Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it's free) or follow us on Twitter or Facebook. Let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.

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