With more than 25% of the sample undecided in the matchup with Caprio, and over 35% with Lynch, there can be (and will be) a lot of movement in these numbers. Also, there doesn't seem to be as much movement as there once was of Robitaille voters (conservatives) moving toward Caprio.

These numbers are similar to the WPRI polling numbers, although the matchup with Lynch places more voters in undecided.
Of the likely Democratic primary voters, Caprio: 30.6%; Lynch: 21.8%; Don't Know: 47.5%

With almost half of the primary voters undecided, it's anyone's game, although Lynch has a lot of catching up to do.
There are three additional unknowns in this race:
1. With former state Rep. Victor Moffitt announcing his candidacy as another Republican, there will be a Republican primary as well - this only helps Chafee in my opinion.
2. What effect will Ken Block as the Moderate Party candidate have? The Moderate Party platform comports nicely with conservative economics. If it comes down to a 4-way between Lynch, Chafee, Block, and whoever the Republican will be, this only helps Lynch. Replace Lynch with Caprio, this may help Chafee.
3. Will Todd Giroux have any effect on the election results?

With a 5-way race (Dem, Repub, Chafee, Block, and Giroux) the win number goes down slightly, but it's likely that Giroux will have no measurable effect on the race (sorry Todd).

Let's summarize:
Frank Caprio (Democrat)
Patrick Lynch (Democrat)
John Robitaille (Republican)
Victor Moffitt (Republican)
Ken Block (Moderate)
Lincoln Chafee (Independent)
Todd Giroux (Independent)

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